Feet of clay: The official errors that exaggerated global 2026

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Hansen didnt say 2025 has to beat 2024 or the theorys toast. What he actually said was that temps in 2025 should hang around/above ~1.5C and still be in the running with 2024 for warmest year, even with La Nia in play, because the ship aerosol drop + higher sensitivity would mute the usual post-El Nio cooling.
Its a record foretold: 2024 was the hottest year in human history, even hotter than the record-breaking year before it. Global surface temperatures were somewhere between 1.45C and 1.6C higher than the average from 1850 to 1900, multiple climate monitoring groups reported today.
Analysis of climate change causation Hansen noted that in determining responsibility for climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions on climate is determined not by current emissions, but by accumulated emissions over the lifetime of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

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The authors point to four reasons why scientists disagree about global warming: a conflict among scientists in different and often competing disciplines; fundamental scientific uncertainties concerning how the global climate responds to the human presence; failure of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on
2025 is shaping up to be among the warmest years on record, behind 2024 but rivaling 2023. Globally, northern hemisphere summer temperature records are being broken in some big and shocking ways, from the Arctic to Oceania, and in many places in between.
Carbon Briefs projection suggests that 2025 is virtually certain to be one of the top-three warmest years on record, with a best-estimate suggesting that global average temperatures will be approximately equal to 2023.

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