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each crisis is more dangerous than the one before so 1998 2008 here we are in 2022 were going to get to a point we may be there where the crisis is actually bigger than the FED bigger than the feds ability to stop we are uncomfortably close now its impossible to know exactly how close it is a complex dynamic system and you can make very good predictions on complex Dynamic systems as to the magnitude of the crisis but its very hard to get the exact timing but I can say that were uncomfortable because now weve been there twice before in recent years 1998 we came within hours of shutting every Market in the world began with a Russian default by the way August 17 1998 Russia defaulted on their external debt and the Rupal was grossly devalued that started a global liquidity crisis went around the world ended up in my lap at long-term Capital Management where we had 1.4 trillion dollars of derivatives and everyone goes oh you know long-term capital you guys lost a lot of in Russia we
