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The text discusses the current economic situation and outlook, cautioning against being too optimistic but not forecasting a deep and prolonged recession. Central banks, particularly the Fed, are urged to exercise care. The bond market suggests the Fed will be successful in combating inflation. The conversation is part of Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro, and Lisa Abramowicz, with a focus on the upcoming holiday season and the changes brought about by the tumultuous year.