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[Music] now theres nothing worse is there than when youve agreed to buy or sell something at a future date the other person just doesnt turn up and youre left with no deal well this is exactly what we face in the foreign exchange markets now lets just say youre a bank youve done a deal with one of your customers and youve agreed that in lets say one months time they will give you one currency and you will give them another currency in return what do you do well what you do is you lay the risk off with another bank so its called a back-to-back trade youve done a trade with a customer you lay it off with another bank and between where you buy and sell thats your profit but what would happen if the client didnt turn up and didnt deliver their currency youve got a problem because you still have to honor your trade on your hedge with the other bank so what we need to do in the markets is look at the probability that the client is going to default and if they do how much cou
