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okay so heres the bleaching example from week to homework again whats plotted on the x-axis is the sea surface temperature anomaly in degrees centigrade from the average temperature over some period of time that Ive forgotten and whats plotted on the y-axis is the percentage of cells bleached where coral bleaching was reported the max this has been back transformed onto the original axis the data and the graph in the paper are of course on a law the y-axis is on a log scale so when you put it back into the linear scale the function is now no longer even remotely linear its an exponential increase and heres the maximum observed data point in that data set up to this point in time but as with in the Guthrie and Bing hem paper you know what was done was to sort of project upwards and ask what at what point are we going to see 100 percent bleaching so to do that wed draw a horizontal line here in the paper they focus on the average but of course the lower or the upper prediction li