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The speaker warns that each crisis is more dangerous than the last, with the possibility of a crisis larger than the Fed's ability to control. In 1998, a Russian default triggered a global liquidity crisis, coming close to shutting down all markets. In 2008, another crisis occurred. As of 2022, we are uncomfortably close to another crisis, but exact timing is hard to predict in complex dynamic systems. The speaker's experience at Long-Term Capital Management illustrates the potential magnitude of such crises.
