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Over the years, there have been paradigm shifts, with transitions between very different environments, such as the shift from the 1920s to the 1930s. Long periods of easing monetary policy and quantitative easing can lead to surprises as people extrapolate past events. It is important to step back and view history from a longer perspective. The Federal Reserve made a mistake in assuming a normal cycle, thinking that increasing growth and lowering unemployment would lead to inflation.