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The speaker warns that each crisis is more dangerous than the previous ones, citing 1998 and 2008 as examples. In 2022, there is concern that a crisis could surpass the capabilities of the FED to manage. Predicting the exact timing of such a crisis is difficult due to the complex nature of dynamic systems. In 1998, a Russian default triggered a global liquidity crisis, coming close to shutting down markets. The speaker, who was involved with Long-Term Capital Management, emphasizes the unpredictability of crises despite our proximity to another potential financial downturn.
