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hi everybody welcome to part two and the final part of my seismic hazard analysis lecture and in in the previous part youll recall that we reviewed deterministic seismic hazard analysis we introduced the idea of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and then we did some basic review of some probability concepts including the total probability theorem and we gave a nice example with baseball and then we talked about the first uncertainty that is accounted for by probabilistic seismic hazard analysis which is spacial uncertainty so now Im going to fast forward here and were going to pick up where we left off and were going to talk about uncertainty dealing with how big will the earthquake be so really this is uncertainty dealing with the magnitude now when we talk about the uncertainty dealing with magnitude this is a handle with what we call recurrence laws when we say recurrence we think well how often will something repeat itself or occur again and again and what were talking ab