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LDC Credit-risk Forecasting and Banker Judgement - socsci2 ucsd

LDC Credit-risk Forecasting and Banker Judgement - socsci2 ucsd 2025

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The document discusses the assessment of country credit-risk by international banks, particularly focusing on less-developed countries (LDCs). It critiques existing methods and proposes a parsimonious econometric model that uses four macroeconomic variables to replicate bankers' country credit ratings from the Institutional Investor. The study finds that these ratings can be effectively predicted using the model, which demonstrates stable parameters and predictive ability over a nine-year out-of-sample period. The findings suggest that average banker judgement may not provide significant additional value beyond simple macroeconomic data in assessing country risk.

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