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Real-Time Exchange Rate Predictability with Taylor Rule Fundamentals - economics appstate

Real-Time Exchange Rate Predictability with Taylor Rule Fundamentals - economics appstate 2025

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The paper investigates short-horizon exchange rate predictability using Taylor rule fundamentals and real-time data for 10 OECD countries against the U.S. dollar. It finds that exchange rate predictability is stronger with first-release real-time data compared to current-vintage data, particularly in single-equation estimations. The study also reveals that symmetric Taylor rule models outperform asymmetric ones in this context, although results differ when using panel estimation methods. Overall, the findings suggest that Taylor rule models can effectively explain short-term exchange rate changes.

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