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Presentation of the practical exercise on traffic forecasting

Presentation of the practical exercise on traffic forecasting 2025

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The document outlines a practical exercise focused on traffic forecasting for a planned High Speed Rail line between Azurcity and Bluecity. It details a five-stage process for assessing the project's viability, including understanding current rail demand, forecasting market share, estimating modal shifts from road and air travel, and maximizing profitability for AMRAIL. Each stage involves specific calculations and models to evaluate the economic interest of the project.

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Begin with Stage 1, where you will assess the current position of conventional rail. Use the provided Price-Time Model worksheet to determine the indifference time value for travelers between Azurcity and Bluecity.
Move to Stage 2, focusing on understanding present rail demand. Utilize the Gravity Model Calibration worksheet to estimate parameters like rail travelers' value of time and generalized cost elasticity.
In Stage 3, forecast the new rail market share using the Price-Time Model Application worksheet. Calculate the new indifference value of time based on your chosen ticket price and input this into the model.
Proceed to Stage 4, where you will forecast traffic shifts from road and mobility increases. Recalculate generalized costs using the Traffic Forecast worksheet and ensure your planned train frequencies meet or exceed reference levels.
Finally, in Stage 5, maximize AMRAIL’s profit by testing various train numbers and ticket prices in the Cost Function worksheet to optimize revenue against operating costs.

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