Edu vol12num2 emerging 2026

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What Is the Enrollment Cliff in Higher Education? The enrollment cliff refers to the sharp decline in the number of college-age students in the U.S., expected to accelerate starting in 2025.
Undergraduate enrollment in the U.S. has already been on a decline since 2011 when it docHubed its peak. And the percentage of high-school graduates going straight to college is also falling after hitting a high of 70 percent in 2016; by 2022, the last year available, it had dropped to 62 percent.
This decline in births is why the traditional college-age population in the U.S. will start to shrink dramatically beginning in 2025 and lasting until 2037, according to data from the Western Interstate Commission on Higher Education.
What Changed in 2025? Fewer students are graduating from high school. With the national birthrate declining, colleges are facing a smaller pool of applicants. Budget pressures are rising. Application behavior is harder to predict.