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Risk-smoothing across time and the demand for inventories: a mean

Risk-smoothing across time and the demand for inventories: a mean 2025

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The document discusses the complexities of inventory investment decisions under uncertainty, particularly for storable commodities. It critiques traditional economic models that assume all uncertainty is future-oriented and introduces a mean-variance approach to better account for current uncertainties affecting inventory accumulation. The paper highlights how changes in expectations and uncertainties can influence inventory decisions, emphasizing the importance of understanding these dynamics for macroeconomic performance and business cycles. It also presents a model that separates the effects of current and future uncertainties on inventory demand, aiming to reconcile observed production volatility with theoretical predictions.

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