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UNREALISTIC OPTIMISM ABOUT EXOGENOUS EVENTS: An

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The document presents an experimental study conducted by Astri Muren at Stockholm University to investigate the phenomenon of unrealistic optimism in individuals when estimating probabilities related to exogenous events. The experiment involved two groups of students guessing the number of green balls in a container, with one group incentivized to guess optimistically. Results indicated a systematic optimistic bias in guesses, suggesting that individuals tend to overestimate positive outcomes and underestimate negative ones.

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What is an example of unrealistic optimism?

An example of the optimism bias is when people underestimate the likelihood that their marriage will end in divorce or that they will develop a serious health condition during their lives (Weinstein, 1980). There are a number of different phenomena which are normally grouped under the heading optimism bias.

What are the risks of excessive optimism?

Although optimism may serve the function to motivate individuals in the present in the service of future goals, excessive optimism may blind individuals to perceive the inherent risk in their present actions, resulting in consequences that individuals might better permit themselves to anticipate.

What are the consequences of unrealistic optimism?

The consequences of unrealistic optimism are likely innocuous or even positive in the short-run (reduced anxiety, persistence toward goals), but negative in the long run (increased likelihood of negative outcomes due to increased risk behavior, failure to take precautions, or insufficient preparation).

What are the disadvantages of optimism?

8 DOWNSIDES OF POSITIVE THINKING Excessive risk-taking. Optimism bias. Engaging in bad habits. Not learning from mistakes. Inability to process emotions. Being inauthentic. Failing to prepare for the future. Ignoring warning signs.

What is the fallacy of unrealistic optimism?

Optimism bias or optimistic bias is a cognitive bias that causes someone to believe that they themselves are less likely to experience a negative event. It is also known as unrealistic optimism or comparative optimism. It is common and transcends gender, ethnicity, nationality, and age.

What are some examples of optimism bias?

For example, we assume that we can complete projects in shorter amounts of time than is actually possible. We assume that our relationships will last longer than they realistically might. We assume that we will make more money than others.

What is the downside of excessive optimism?

While optimism is a healthy attribute, being overly optimistic in the face of adversity can be toxic and negatively influence your emotional wellness. Positive thinking improves life outcomes and reduces the likelihood of suicide ideation and behavior, but toxic positivity forces people to disregard negative emotions.

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