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This year, El Nino is in place heading into winter for the first time in four years, driving the outlook for warmer-than-average temperatures for the northern tier of the continental United States, ing to NOAAs U.S. Winter Outlook released today by the Climate Prediction Center a division of the National
Warmer air have more capacity to bear moisture. Warm air rises due to convection. That is why we have more rains in summer than in winter.
El Nio is typically associated with wetter than normal conditions along the southern third of California eastward following the U.S.-Mexico border and drier than normal conditions in the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies.
October 2023 The average global temperature for October was 2.41 degrees F (1.34 degrees C) above the 20th-century average of 57.1 degrees F (14.0 degrees C), ranking as the worlds warmest October on record.
In Mammoth and Shaver lakes, for example, El Nio winters can often produce an additional 1 to 2 feet of snow compared to average. While lower elevations, like the Auburn entrance to the Interstate 80 pass near Tahoe, see snow accumulations stay close to average during moderate and strong El Nio conditions.
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One thing to note is that temperatures tend to be moderated during strong El Nino winters, owing to the Pacific-dominated flow. On average, strong El Nino winters have less very warm days (highs of 70 F or greater) as well as less very cold days (highs of 32 F or colder) when compared to the long- term normals.
During an El Nio winter, the southern third to half of the United States, including California, tends to see wetter weather. (Exactly where that dividing line falls varies from year to year.) Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Ohio Valley tend to be dry and warm.
As average temperatures at the Earths surface rise (see the U.S. and Global Temperature indicator), more evaporation occurs, which, in turn, increases overall precipitation. Therefore, a warming climate is expected to increase precipitation in many areas.

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