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yes I think you know to describe the long-term Dead stick we can start with the short-term business cycle the normal credit cycle which is basically you have an economic expansion you get Rising debt to GDP and then either the FED kills it or it runs its course or some external shock happens something eventually causes some sort of rollover a period of economic uh contraction you get deleveraging of some of the Mala investment uh or over you know kind of over uh entities that got over their skis and the issue is that because of how the system constructed you know policymakers come in and try to short-circuit that process and make it smoother and shorter uh than it otherwise might be and so they caught interest rates they basically try to re-emphasize credit growth during that credit contraction and as a result when you string a bunch of these together instead of having like a sine wave of debt to GDP you get like an upward side wave where you keep getting higher debt relative to GDP so