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When we look at whats happening with the consumer, which is the backbone of the U.S. economy, we are seeing a clear loss of momentum. Further deterioration, the labor market, were starting to obviously get a flavor of that. The danger is we have to go higher and rates and it lasts for longer than what the Fed is even looking for. We dont think theyre going to cut by the end of this year. We do think early, 24, 24. Its going to be a recession, but a mild recession. So its a hard landing. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz. Good morning, everyone. Jonathan Ferro in London. Lisa Abramowicz and Tom Keene on a Friday. Its set for the weekend and a Fed meeting coming up next week. We welcome all of you here on economics, finance, investment on John Farrells tax bill, the United Kingdom. Well get to him quickly here. In a moment, the chancellor of the exchequer speaking at our Bloomberg offices in London, Joel Weber. So youre saying th