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[Music] in the early 60s another production law was discovered by john kingman his mathematical theory of probability termed the kingmans formula is also known as the vut equation it is quite complex from his original calculations and while it is generally known to be very accurate it is also quite easy to understand kingmans formula helps us understand the average or actual duration of a task or actual cycle time of a work package to find this we must take into account the effects of variation the effects of utilization and the processor cycle time this is why it is called the vut equation a equals v times u times t variation is what causes deviation from the plan this can be due to many things like roadblocks multitasking contact switching or having too much work in process but it can also be caused by change in production rates in the sequence or trying to get ahead when all systems and trades are not ready we bake variation into our plans when we dont identify production areas t
