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good afternoon everyone and thank you so much for joining this webinar where well be reviewing the results of the 1q 19 MPI quarterly forecast report and talking about the latest developments in the economy in general so I thought Id start us by introducing kind of a big-picture overview of what we see going on in the US macro economy by looking at the benchmark for economic performance that I believe is most important to MPI member companies so in this particular slide Im showing you the forecast and the current performance and past performance for the US industrial production index I mentioned this is our benchmark for the industrial economy I think this is a much better barometer for the type of market conditions that MTI member companies are operating in compared to something more general like GDP and so we use this as the basis kind of the comparison for what you are likely to see the reality of the world around you over the next 12 24 36 months into the future so Im showing