Shade picture in the Job Report 2020

Aug 6th, 2022
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How to shade picture in the Job Report 2020

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In August, non-farm payrolls added 187,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations of 170,000 and better than the revised figure of 157,000 from the previous month. Cumulative revisions from January to July resulted in a net loss of 355,000 jobs. The unemployment rate increased to 3.8%, while the participation rate rose to 62.8%, indicating over 700,000 new entrants to the labor force. Wages grew by 2% monthly, falling short of expectations and down from 4% in the previous month, but represented a 4.3% year-over-year increase. Average hours worked also increased. Initial declines in the 2-year note yield suggested a positive interpretation for the Federal Reserve's goal of slowing the economy, although this view quickly reversed with other data.

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Using JOLTS To Measure Labor Market Tightness If the ratio is 2-to-1, this means there are two vacancies for every unemployed worker. This would signal a very high amount of job openings compared to workers who are unemployed and looking for jobs.
The unemployment rate has varied from as low as 1% during World War I to as high as 25% during the Great Depression.
A higher JOLTS Job Openings report is positive for the stock market as it indicates a strong employment sector which can support economic growth.
This measure divides the number of vacancies (provided in the JOLTS) by the number of unemployed workers. If the ratio is 2-to-1, this means there are two vacancies for every unemployed worker. This would signal a very high amount of job openings compared to workers who are unemployed and looking for jobs.
The job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) is a monthly report done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics that collects data from employers in order to measure job openings, new hires, the number of employees who quit or were laid off, and other forms of labor turnover.
The recession induced by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in steep job losses, pushed the unemployment rate to a high of 13.0 percent in the second quarter of 2020, and caused many people to leave the labor force.
JOLTS Job Openings tend to lead U.S. core CPI by 12 months.
In July 2020, CBO projected the rate would average about 14 percent in the second and third quarters of 2020 and still be 7.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. The actual unemployment rate averaged 13 percent in the second quarter of 2020 and then fell sharply, averaging 4.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021.

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