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if my forecast is right and where rates go by the way I see the long bond is going to deliver you a total return this year of 20 percent I frankly dont think that there is a legitimate scenario that will get the equity Market there this year well I think in one word or less uh recession is going to be the operative word for 2023. I think that we move beyond the debate of this being a soft lending to recession I think now its the question is going to be uh how deep and how long and it was interesting to me to see last week uh the uh the big Banks coming out and saying that theyre expecting a mild recession even if its mild I dont think that theres a lot of asset classes out there that are still priced for mild recession I think that especially after this big risk-on rally so far this year uh for some reason everybodys got you know soft Landing back on the brain the overall theme is this its basically 2022 was the year of the aggressive uh interest rate actions from the central