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After a long winter of 2022 into 2023, characterized by Russia paying a heavy toll to make very slow progress in meat grinder known as Bakhmut, the weather is turning, and all speculation is that Ukraine will soon begin a spring counteroffensive at least as soon as the mud dries up to facilitate the rapid movement of heavy machinery. The hope in Kyiv is that their plan will prove pivotal, moving away from the winter attritional phase and to a place where they can see the light at the end of the wars tunnel. With that in mind, lets discuss some possible ways that the counteroffensive could terminate the war, how plausible each is, and, as a bonus, how China might influence the proceedings. We begin with the obvious option: Ukraine just wins. It is a war, so outright beating the other side seems like a sensible solution. We have described the likely Ukrainian game plan before, but lets summarize the basics and discuss what has changed in the interim. This is the Crimean
