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[Music] hi im lauren seidel baker an economist here at itr economics and i am so excited to present to you today tools for seeing the future this is our methodology the fundamental basis how we calculate our our forecast and really how we look at any indicator be it your business or something bigger gross domestic product industrial production a major sector of the economy but id like to look at this information today as if it was a business so ill call this my business lauren incorporated i probably have a sense of my sales i should be tracking that on a monthly basis but theres a really interesting story going on behind the scenes and its our job to get at that story to see whats really happening here thats not easily discernible at first glance so lets do a few things to manipulate this data i promise theres no high level math this is simple calculations were going to start just by getting a smoothed out version of whats going on in my monthly sales data so ill do that f