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Three people are at a dinner party. Paul, whos married, is looking at Linda. Meanwhile, Linda is looking at John, whos not married. Is someone whos married looking at someone whos not married? Take a moment to think about it. Most people answer that theres not enough information to tell. And most people are wrong. Linda must be either married or not marriedthere are no other options. So in either scenario, someone married is looking at someone whos not married. When presented with the explanation, most people change their minds and accept the correct answer, despite being very confident in their first responses. Now lets look at another case. A 2005 study by Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler examined American attitudes regarding the justifications for the Iraq War. Researchers presented participants with a news article that showed no weapons of mass destruction had been found. Yet many participants not only continued to believe that WMDs had been found, but they even
