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and so that will be the only source of liquidity in the next Crisis because the essential banks are not you know if they dont normalize before the crisis and it looks like theyre gonna that they wont be able to theyre going to run out of Runway uh and they cant expand the balance sheet Beyond a small amount because theyll destroy confidence where does the liquidity come from the answer is it comes from the so what are the good models what are the models that do work what is the good science the first thing is complexity Theory uh complexity theory has a long pedigree in physics meteorology seismology forest fire management traffic lots of fields where its been applied with a lot of success so why not just take complexity science and bring it over to Capital markets thats what weve done were getting fantastic results so thats the first thing second thing we use is something called Bayesian statistics its basically a mathematical model that you use when you dont have enough