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in this video I want to talk about how random assignment of treatment can actually allow us to evaluate the average causal effect and remember here what were interested in is were interesting whether in a conflict area where there infrastructure spending actually causes a decline in the level of violence and the problem we have here is that there is an issue of reverse causality which was normally confounding our estimates of this effect also remember what we are trying to do essentially what we did is we defined there being some sort of potential level of violence which a given district would obtain if they did receive infrastructure spending and we called that v1 I and we also considered a nother potential level of violence which is the level of violence that that state would obtain if they didnt receive infrastructure spending and what were interested in essentially was evaluating for each state what is the difference between these two potential outcomes because that essentially
