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it has been a rockier start to 2022 as we have seen tech stocks in particular software stocks in particular as our jared blickery was just outlining on the decline oil prices have been on the rise so what does this tell us if anything about how the rest of the year is going to go aaron brown is with us now pimco portfolio manager and aaron you wrote in a recent note about the so-called fat tail risks that are out there in other words that there are some possibilities of pretty divergent outcomes for markets for the economy this year you know given that were weve already come through a couple years where there were pretty divergent possible outcomes how do you gain those out sort of post the lessons of 2020 and 2021 so first i think its important as a starting point to look at what the growth backdrop is and what your base case is likely to be and were still in an environment where growth is still going to be pretty good um and while were certainly decelerating from a exceptionally