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WE ARE SEEING UPSIDE SURPRISES IN THE DATA. THE THING WE DONT HAVE IS GLOBAL GROWTH. WE NEED TO SEE IF THESE DYNAMICS PLAY OUT. THE IDEA THIS IS ALL BEHIND US, THAT IS TOO EARLY. IT IS HARD TO SAY RECESSION WONT HAPPEN AS A VENERABLE RULE, I THINK ALL THE PAINT IS STILL TO COME. THIS IS BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE WITH TOM, JONATHAN FERRO, AND LISA ABRAMOWICZ. TOM: GOOD MORNING, JONATHAN FERRO IN LONDON AND IT IS CONTRACTION WEDNESDAY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS GDP COMES OUT TODAY, IT IS GOING TO BE A GOOD NUMBER AND THAT IS IT. LISA: WEVE GOT SEVEN STRAIGHT MONTHS OF BELOW 50 READS IN THE PMIS WE GOT YESTERDAY. WHAT DOES THAT SAY IN TERMS OF WHAT THE GROWTH IS AND WHETHER THAT IS ALREADY BAKED IN? TOM: IT IS AN ODD TERMINAL SCREEN TODAY. LETS TALK THE DATA CHECKS BEFORE WE GO TO JONATHAN FERRO WITH AN IMPORTANT QUESTION IN LONDON. FUTURES DOWN, VICS SHOWING SOME GOOD NEWS. BUT IN THE BOND SPACE IT SCREAMS ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN TODAY. THE REAL YIELD, AND LOOK AT THE TWO YEAR G