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hey this is Eric with EPB research and this is our chart of the week where we take one or two important charts and explain what they mean and how they fit into the overall business cycle sequence in this chart of the week were going to focus on corporate profit margins corporate profit margins are considered a leading indicator of the business cycle as the chart shows corporate profit margins tend to Peak and decline several quarters before the onset of a business cycle recession like most leading indicators the lead time can be highly variable to be clear this chart shows pre-tax corporate profit margins so the changing effective corporate tax rate does not impact these results when corporations notice profit margins starting to decline they take preemptive steps to protect them such as scaling back on Capital expenditures reducing the hours of existing employees and freezing new hiring plans all of these preemptive steps are captured in leading indicators of employment because they
